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By 2019, India to be 3rd largest aviation market by departure



More than 150 million passengers are expected to take flights from Indian airports in the next financial year (2018-19), making the country the world's third largest aviation market for departures, says a report by global consultancy and research firm Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA).
Overall, India is on its path to become the third largest aviation market—both departing and arriving passengers—after the US and China by 2025, according to global airlines' body International Air Transport Association (IATA). But CAPA estimates that India will get there by the end of 2022-23. Indian airports are estimated to serve over 460 million fliers that financial year, up from 265 million in 2017-18.
But Indian airports are ill-prepared for the increase in passengers. This could mean passengers boarding from many airports could face long queues at check-in, security, immigration counters, longer flight delays and higher airfares. Indian airport system is expected to exceed its maximum structural capacity by FY 2022 and this level could be breached earlier if the new airport projects are delayed.
Maximum structural capacity is the maximum passengers an airport can handle if all the possible infrastructure and operational improvements are carried out. Beyond this, the only option would be to go for a new airport at a different site.
Major airports such as Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai are at the highest risk of saturation. Smaller airports like Agartala, Dehradun, Guwahati, Jaipur, Kozhikode, Lucknow, Mangalore, Pune, Srinagar and Trichy are already operating beyond their design capacity.


For airlines, the big challenge would be getting arrival/departure time slots and parking bays. Indian carriers are expected to induct close to 350-400 aircraft over the next five years. "These aircraft will also have to fly somewhere. As metro airports become saturated, airlines will have to deploy more capacity to Tier 2 cities over the next 3 years due to slot constraints," says the CAPA report. Then there is the parking problem—where will the airlines park their A320s and B737s for night? "Airlines are already facing challenges securing overnight parking bays. This will become increasingly difficult with so many aircraft scheduled for induction over the next 5 years," the report said.

Kapil Kaul, CEO and director of CAPA-South Asia, terms it a "near-crisis situation". "Preparing a realistic and executable plan for such massive airport infrastructure development will take a few years,'' he said adding that India's response to such a crisis like situation continues to be ad hoc and inadequate. India will need to construct airports to handle an additional 500-600 million passengers by 2030. The 55 new airports that are estimated to be required by 2030 will need 150,000 to 200,000 acres of land to be allocated for their development. All of this will require USD36-45 billion of investment. "The USD 45 billion investment number assumes that the government will give land for airport development at subsidized rates," said Kaul, adding that India urgently needs a new airport development framework.

Currently, India is the fourth largest aviation market in the world with 131 million passengers per annum (handled in calender year 2016) behind US (815 million), China (490 million) and Japan (141 million) and alongside the UK (131 million). Once reaching the third slot, India is expected to stay there for decades.
Over the last three years, domestic passenger traffic has grown at a rate of 18.9%, rising from 61 million to 103 million passengers, in 2017. India is now the third largest domestic market in the world.

source:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/by-19-india-to-be-3rd-largest-aviation-mkt-by-departure/articleshow/61611654.cms

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